Up to February 2026, a new tenant in Dubai paid around ten percent more than a tenant renewing their lease. Since May it has been the other way round. That is what our own analysis of the official rent register shows.
Every lease in Dubai is registered with Ejari, either as a new contract or as a renewal. We do not compare the whole market, because a different mix of homes is let every month. We compare like with like: same location, same project, same property type, same size band. We measure rent per square foot, as a median, month by month.
| Month | New lease vs. prior month | vs. prior-year month | New lease vs. renewal |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | +0.5% | +6.1% | +10.1% |
| March 2026 | −1.3% | +4.4% | +8.6% |
| April 2026 | −5.9% | −1.3% | +4.3% |
| May 2026 | −4.0% | −4.6% | −0.6% |
| June 2026 | −2.6% | −7.6% | −1.8% |
| July 2026 | −0.8% | −7.8% | −2.0% |
| August 2026 | 0.0% | −9.8% | −2.9% |
| September 2026* | +1.7% | −10.4% | −2.7% |
Source: Dubai Land Department, Ejari rent register, own analysis by The Access House. Median change across comparable property groups, at least three contracts per group and side. *September preliminary, registrations up to 25 September 2026.
Up to February, new-lease rents were flat to slightly rising and around six percent up on the previous year. The war began on 28 February, the ceasefire followed on 8 April. The series breaks in exactly this window: March minus 1.3 percent, April minus 5.9 percent month on month. There is no earlier break in the data.
Renewals react more slowly because they build on running contracts. That is why new leases have been cheaper than renewals since May, most recently by almost three percent.
July minus 0.8 percent, August 0.0 percent, preliminary September plus 1.7 percent. It looks like a turn, but it is not one yet. September was also positive in 2024, at plus 1.6 percent, and in 2025, at plus 1.4 percent. Plus 1.7 percent is therefore an ordinary September. What is proven is that the decline has stopped. Whether this turns into a recovery, October will show. We will update this analysis as soon as the figures are available.
Anyone buying a tenanted unit today takes over the running lease. Article 28 of Dubai's tenancy law says so: a change of ownership does not affect a fixed-term lease. If that lease dates from before the war, the rent currently tends to sit above what a new letting would achieve. For now, that speaks in favour of tenanted stock.
The risk lies at the end of the contract. Under Article 13, both sides can renegotiate the rent at renewal, explicitly including downwards. If they cannot agree, the Rental Dispute tribunal sets a fair rent based on comparable properties. Conversely, under Decree 43/2013 an increase is only permitted if the rent sits more than ten percent below the benchmark.
TAH perspective
Do not calculate the yield of a tenanted unit on the current rent, but on the level that new leases in the same building achieve today. And check the end date of the contract. If it falls in the coming months, you are only buying the current rent for a short time.
On methodology: July 2026 is not yet fully captured in the register, August and September come from the DLD's monthly exports. Figures for these months may shift slightly as late registrations arrive. This article is a market analysis, not legal advice.
Yes, for new leases. In our analysis of the Ejari register, new-lease rents for comparable properties were around 9.8 percent below the prior-year month in August 2026 and around 10.4 percent below in the preliminary September figures. Up to February 2026 they had still been rising by around 6 percent year on year.
The decline has stopped since July 2026: July minus 0.8 percent, August 0.0 percent and preliminary September plus 1.7 percent month on month. September was, however, seasonally positive in 2024 and 2025 as well. A genuine recovery is therefore not yet proven.
A running lease signed before the war currently tends to sit above the level of new leases and passes to the buyer on purchase. The risk lies at the end of the contract, because at renewal both sides can renegotiate the rent, including downwards. Base your calculation on today's new-lease level, not on the current rent.
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